Trump’s tariffs risk destroying his winning coalition

As markets tank and the prospect of higher prices becomes more real, the future of President Donald Trump’s winning coalition might be on a precipice, too. Trump’s tariff policy, unpopular with the American public in general, is even more unpopular among the voters who gave him the boost he needed to win the 2024 election. They include young voters, voters of color, and independents — people who prioritized economic concerns and the price of goods enough to take a wager on a second Trump term. These voters weren’t necessarily hardcore MAGA fans — some, such as young voters, aren’t necessarily conservative ideologically, for example — but they were dissatisfied with the post-pandemic status quo and the Democratic Party’s handling of inflation. Trump and Republican candidates promised them lower prices, and these voters expected them to deliver. As the president has focused on immigration, tearing apart the government bureaucracy, and threatening, then delaying, tariffs, these voters, like the American public in general, have said consistently that they want him to focus on lowering costs and beating inflation for good instead. Over the last few weeks, polling has shown that voters think Trump isn’t focusing enough on their top issue: the economy. And the data also show a clear warning sign for Trump and Republicans ahead of next year’s midterms: the non-MAGA voters that diversified and expanded their winning 2024 coalition are at risk of defecting, and throwing the future of this popular majority into uncertainty. Trump is losing support over the economy with voters outside his base Though he’s more popular than he was at this point in his presidency in 2017, Trump has been steadily losing support from the American public as perceptions of his economic stewardship have worsened. Immigration policy remains his strength — just over half of the country supports his harsh, restrictionist approach. But opinions of how he’s handling jobs, the economy, and inflation have been steadily dropping. Among Trump’s voters, a stark divide is emerging between his core base of (primarily white, non-college educated) MAGA supporters, and the less ideological, more diverse (albeit smaller) group of Republican voters who do not consider themselves MAGA-aligned (YouGov pollsters ask respondents if they identify as MAGA followers). Financial Times data journalist John Burn-Murdoch captured this dynamic last week, noting an “economic disconnect between Trump’s Maga on the one hand and the wider conservative Republican party on the other” in polling data shared with him by YouGov. > This shows that the narrow subset of voters who identify as Maga Republicans continue to approve of the president at astronomically high levels, even after the tangible turmoil of the past 10 weeks. But the larger group of other voters who backed Trump last November is rapidly souring on his economic policies and overall record. That disconnect is huge when it comes to “jobs and the economy” and “inflation/prices,” where the MAGA base’s approval of Trump’s job performance hasn’t really budged at all between February and April, while in the category of “other Trump 2024 voters,” Trump’s approval has plunged. One key driver for all of this? Trump’s tariff policy specifically. Among all American adults, these tariffs are really unpopular, and respondents specifically think they’ll worsen inflation. YouGov’s most recent polling from April 2 — the so-called Liberation Day that Trump hyped up to announce his universal tariffs, show this — though it’s still early and we’ll get more data points in the days to come. More than half, or 51 percent of American adults said they “somewhat” or “strongly” disapprove of the tariff policy. Just 34 percent said they approved — a nearly 20-point net negative rating. And more than two-thirds of these respondents said they expect the price of everyday goods will increase as a result, including 47 percent of Republicans. Breaking down these figures by the cohorts of voters that Trump made gains with last year paints a similarly startling picture for the GOP: * Latino and Black voters: Trump made extraordinary gains with Latino voters who were most persuadable by economic messaging last year and made more modest gains with Black voters — particularly Black men. But both groups of voters overwhelmingly oppose Trump’s tariff announcement: Black Americans disapprove by a 23-point margin, while Latinos disapprove by a 30-point margin, per YouGov polling. They also expect prices will rise: 63 percent of Black respondents say so, while 66 percent of Latino respondents do. And in other YouGov polling, these respondents overwhelmingly think that the Trump administration is putting “too much” focus on applying tariffs: 73 percent of Black adults and 58 percent of Latinos say so. These were groups of the American public who were especially attuned to the rise of prices during the Biden presidency, and likely will be paying just as much attention to shifts in affordability during with Trump in office. While the public in general experienced the pinch of inflation, because of family sizes, the relative youth of these populations, and their concentration in more expensive urban centers, both of these segments of the public were more sensitive to price hikes and experienced tougher economic headwinds from 2021 to 2023. * Young people (especially men): Much has been written about what exactly happened with young voters in the 2024 election — those under the age of 30 still gave Kamala Harris an outright majority of support, according to exit polls,, but that margin shrunk drastically from 2020. The defection of young men specifically to Trump was a major driver of this shift, and while it can be tempting to frame cultural or ideological divisions as the main explanation, concerns over affordability and wanting to earn more seem to be a better explanation. Young voters in 2024 apparently viewed Trump as less taboo than this age cohort did in 2020 or 2016, and Democrats never found a robust response on the economy, inflation, and prices. But now these voters seem to have buyer’s remorse. Among all age groups, this youngest cohort seems to be the most unsure about how to view Trump’s tariffs, but a plurality still disapprove: 48 percent view the tariffs negatively, compared to majorities of millennials and Gen Xers. Still, young people are also price sensitive and price hikes will affect them too. (The saga of the Nintendo Switch 2 — which was already delayed and will likely cost more as a result of the tariffs — could be just the beginning.) * Independents: Finally, Trump made huge gains with independent voters last year, splitting them nearly evenly with Harris depending on the data source (a 3- to 6-point Harris advantage in 2024, or roughly a 7- to 10-point shift right from 2020). Yet these voters also view these tariffs negatively: More than half oppose them, and more than two-thirds expect they will increase prices. A similar share think Trump is putting too much attention on tariffs. All this suggests that tariffs really are a wedge issue for the kinds of voters Trump needed to pad his tiny popular-vote margin last year, and who helped to deliver him victory. They are girding for the opposite of what they expected from his presidency: more economic uncertainty, higher prices, and, potentially, job losses.

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Trump’s tariffs risk destroying his winning coalition