International arrest warrants are out for Netanyahu and Gallant. What happens next?

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has formally issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The arrest warrants do not guarantee that the men will be tried at The Hague, the Dutch city where the ICC is located. Nor do they guarantee any of them will even be arrested, though some countries have announced they would comply with the warrants. But they do make life more complicated for Gallant and Netanyahu in particular. (It’s unclear whether Deif is currently alive.) Both Israelis will find it more difficult to travel abroad, as signatories to the treaty that created the ICC are obligated to arrest and turn over those accused of crimes. That means “there are now 124 countries” — all signatories — “where they would be unwise to travel,” Adil Haque, a law professor at Rutgers University, told Vox. And the warrants will likely be a complicating factor for some of Israel’s allies. Some have domestic laws prohibiting the transfer of weapons to nations that might use them to commit atrocity crimes. Others may find the warrants put a strain on diplomatic relationships. The warrants accuse Gallant and Netanyahu of violating the laws of international armed conflict by intentionally depriving civilians in Gaza of “food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity” by consistently blocking humanitarian aid into Gaza. They also accuse both men of intentionally directing attacks against civilians in Gaza in at least two instances. Deif is also accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity including murder, torture, and sexual violence. Israel has denounced the issuance of the warrants; Netanyahu’s office said Thursday, “There is nothing more just than the war that Israel has been waging in Gaza.” At least 44,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel began its assault on the territory last year in response to an October 7 attack by Hamas that killed roughly 1,200 people. Are Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant actually going to be arrested by the ICC? Netanyahu and Gallant are in no danger of an immediate arrest. Israel is not a signatory to the ICC, meaning it doesn’t recognize the Court’s jurisdiction in its territory. The US — Israel’s closest and most powerful ally — isn’t a signatory either, and in the past has even sanctioned ICC officials attempting to investigate war crimes committed by the CIA and US military personnel in Afghanistan. That means Israeli law enforcement isn’t obligated to arrest Netanyahu or Gallant, and the US is highly unlikely to pressure either man to turn himself in. Israel has tried to argue that the ICC doesn’t have jurisdiction over Israelis at all, but the state of Palestine has been a signatory since 2015 — so crimes committed by anyone in occupied Palestinian territory like Gaza are, in fact, the ICC’s purview. Israel has also tried to claim that the Court shouldn’t be involved in this case because Israel has a strong and competent court system; though that may be true, that court system is not investigating either man for the crimes the ICC prosecutor claims. ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan recommended the arrest warrants in May. At the time, he also recommended warrants for former Hamas leaders who have since been killed by Israeli forces. The Court doesn’t try people in absentia, so the cases against the dead would be moot. The Court does not have its own police force and relies on signatory nations’ law enforcement for arrests. Nations generally don’t make arrests on behalf of the ICC outside of their borders, which means the most likely path for Netanyahu and Gallant to end up in ICC custody would be apprehension by a nation they’re visiting that has a record of taking international treaty obligations very seriously. The warrants could have other consequences outside of arrests Although Netanyahu and Gallant are reasonably safe from arrest, the warrants could have diplomatic and military consequences for Israel, especially in Europe. “I think that even Israel’s allies who are ICC member states will face internal domestic pressure to cut off diplomatic contacts with Netanyahu,” Haque said. For example, “not only can he not travel to Germany, I also would be surprised if [German leaders] will fly to Israel and be photographed with him shaking hands and whatnot, or even to talk to him electronically, just because within their country, they’re going to get a lot of domestic pushback.” The warrants already seem to have diplomatic consequences: The Dutch foreign minister has postponed a planned visit to Israel following the Netherlands’ announcement that it would comply with the arrest warrant. Staunch allies that aren’t ICC member countries — namely the United States — aren’t as likely to change their relationship with Israel, however. “The ICC has no credibility and these allegations have been refuted by the U.S. government,” Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for national security adviser, wrote on X. “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January.” The warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant could also complicate weapons transfers from European states and nations with laws limiting transfers in situations in which there’s credible reason to believe a country will use them to commit atrocities. “We’ve already seen a Dutch court saying that the Netherlands cannot send fighter jet [parts], for example, to Israel. We’ve seen the termination or expiration of various arms contracts that the UK had,” said Kelebogile Zvobgo, professor of government at the College of William & Mary. Those decisions came in the wake of proceedings at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), in which the court agreed to hear a case accusing Israel of genocide, and ordered Israel to stop any actions that could cause genocide. (The ICJ is the UN’s court, which focuses on inter-country disputes.) There are many steps between the issuance of a warrant in the ICC and a judgment at The Hague, including the arrest of Netanyahu and Gallant, as well as gathering evidence that connects the men to the specific alleged crimes — something that’s not simple in active war zones. But as Zvobgo pointed out, Khan, the ICC chief prosecutor, “only brought charges that he thought would realistically result in conviction.” And even if the men accused do not end up in The Hague, Zvobgo said, “even if Netanyahu never steps on Dutch soil, never stands trial at the ICC, he will forever be someone who has been charged with atrocities.” And the charges won’t go away once the war ends, Zvobgo added: “There is no statute of limitations on atrocity crimes.” Update, November 22, 10 am ET: This story was originally published on November 21 and has been updated to include diplomatic consequences of the ICC arrest warrants, including the Dutch foreign minister’s postponement of a planned trip to Israel.

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International arrest warrants are out for Netanyahu and Gallant. What happens next?