How a tiff over tariffs exposed the Canadian government’s fragility

Canada’s government is in trouble. The government currently in charge of the country — led by longtime Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — took its latest hit on Monday, when Trudeau’s right-hand official (and former staunch ally), Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, surprised Canadians by offering her resignation in a spectacular fashion, issuing a letter that sharply criticized her old boss. Freeland specifically cited her disagreements over how to manage Canada’s economy in the face of looming US tariffs as the breaking point in her relationship with Trudeau. President-elect Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on Canada shortly after his election; that threat has put a strain on Trudeau’s government, but they are only part of a larger problem. Trudeau and his party have been steadily losing public and parliamentary confidence for years. Deals meant to keep Trudeau’s party in power crumbled this year, and pressure on Trudeau to resign has begun to build, especially given his party is expected to suffer in national elections next year. All that means that, even before Freeland resigned, Trudeau’s administration was inching closer to the brink of collapse. And now, with Freeland’s resignation, Canada’s government is on even shakier ground as it prepares to confront an incoming, adversarial, Trump administration. Trudeau is unpopular in his party and in Canada Before the Freeland debacle, Trudeau had two problems: The public was unhappy with him and his party’s policies, and many in his party were unhappy with his management. Trudeau has been the leader of Canada for nearly 10 years now, and of his Liberal Party for nearly 12. That’s quite a long time to be in power in the Canadian context. In that time, Trudeau’s popularity has taken a beating; although he started out with a 63 percent approval rating, that has dropped to 28 percent in recent polls. “In some ways, it’s not surprising that Canadians are just kind of fed up with the government, because you get to a certain point in your tenure where you’ve been in there for so long that it’s easy to look around and blame everything that’s wrong on the guy who’s been in charge for 10 years,” Elizabeth McCallion, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, told Vox. “We’re reaching that limit where many Canadians don’t want Trudeau around anymore.” Canada does have some major problems at the moment. The country is struggling with cost-of-living and housing crises, and debate over the wisdom of the Liberal Party’s immigration and environmental strategies has escalated ahead of the 2025 elections. The Liberal Party’s chief rival, the Conservative Party, has been quick to make connections between Trudeau’s policy choices and these issues. Conservatives are expected to make major gains in next year’s elections, and rival parties’ political attacks on Liberals and their record have already proved potent, with Trudeau’s party losing what should have been some safe seats in recent special elections. Those losses have helped spur a crisis of confidence for Trudeau within his party. “He’s been going through sort of a string of setbacks over the last couple of months, including by-election losses — quite significant ones,” Andrew McDougall, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, told Vox. “He lost a [district] in Toronto called St. Paul’s, which was really the core of the Liberal support, and that alone had triggered speculation he might have to go. [Liberals lost] in Montreal as well, which is really where the party has its strongest base — if you can’t win there, you really can’t win anywhere, was the suggestion.” Freeland’s resignation only renewed and intensified calls for Trudeau to resign — and some of those calls came from members of his own party. There’s almost no way to eject him from party leadership if he doesn’t resign, and no one has stepped forward as a strong candidate for the job. However, the House of Commons could vote to trigger early elections through a no-confidence vote after late January, when they meet again after the holidays. Elections would only be called early if that vote succeeds, and it’s unclear if it will. Trudeau survived previous no-confidence votes thanks to the support of former coalition partner, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and the pro-Quebec party Bloc Québécois. But the NDP pulled out of its partnership agreement with the Liberals earlier this year, and Bloc Québécois’s leader said he would work to end Trudeau’s tenure after the Liberal Party failed to meet some of his demands. However, it may not be in the NDP’s interest to dissolve the government now, and if they choose to save Trudeau, the Liberals will keep their hold on power — for now. “The Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois both want to trigger elections but the New Democratic Party is much less eager to do so because the polls look bad for them,” Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, told Vox. “They have propped up the Liberals for years and they could continue to do this when there’s another confidence vote.” The tariffs factor brought everything to a head Trump dropped a new factor into all of this domestic turmoil. In late November, Trump threatened to slap 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” The realities of fentanyl trafficking and migrant flows are far more complicated than Trump suggests, and there is little Canada or Mexico could do to quickly alter either. If he were to follow through on his threat, those tariffs would be extremely damaging to both countries; in Canada’s case, the US is far and away its largest and most important trading partner. Those tariffs would make the affordability crisis that has so hampered Trudeau of late even worse. Freeland was expected to lead Canada’s response to those tariffs, and her resignation letter suggested she and Trudeau disagreed on how to approach the problem they posed. “The incoming administration in the United States is pursuing a policy of aggressive economic nationalism, including a threat of 25 percent tariffs,” Freeland wrote. “We need to take that threat extremely seriously.” In the letter, Freeland also accused Trudeau of using expensive economic “gimmicks” — including a pause on certain taxes and stimulus checks for households making below a certain threshold — to retain support, putting Canada in a precarious financial position as it faces “a grave challenge.” It’s atypical for members of parliament and government ministers to speak out against their party leadership, McCallion and McDougall explained, and Freeland’s departure showed just how unstable Trudeau’s party unity actually is. Trudeau hasn’t made any public statements since Freeland’s resignation; it’s not clear what his next move is, or how he and his new finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc, plan to deal with either the potential tariffs or internal party discord. Trudeau and Freeland did negotiate a trade deal with the previous Trump administration, and that combined experience could have served Trudeau well. Trudeau may not get the chance to fully reprise those negotiations, however. Even if he survives a potential no-confidence vote early next year, elections are scheduled for October, and, again, the Conservatives are projected to win.

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How a tiff over tariffs exposed the Canadian government’s fragility